Methodology and limitations
How the numbers are produced, and where they should not be trusted.
The impact model
What follows is the design of the model. It is built in phase 3. Nothing on the site computes it yet, and every figure currently shown is hand-written placeholder data.
Spend is allocated to industries, converted to output, value added and employment, then run through the input-output flow-through and a constraints layer. National tables are regionalised using Flegg's location quotient rather than a simple location quotient, because the simple version systematically overstates multipliers for small regions.
The constraints layer applies state labour supply with a fitted wage elasticity, industrial capacity and its ramp rate, crowding out of other industries scaled by local labour market tightness, and import leakage measured from the offshore share of contracts rather than assumed.
Where this should not be trusted
The Australian Bureau of Statistics cautions against using input-output multipliers without adjustment, and that caution applies here. The constraints layer will be what makes these figures usable once phase 3 builds it, and it will itself be estimated with uncertainty.
Supplier registered address is not delivery location. Where a better attribution exists it will be used, and the coverage percentage will be stated on every geographic view. Phase 1 shows registered supplier state only. Where a better attribution does not exist, the figure reflects where a company is registered, not where work happens.
Contract notices see only part of the Defence budget. Personnel, operating costs, Foreign Military Sales and classified spend are outside them, and the reconciliation on the overview page shows the size of that gap rather than hiding it.
Reproducibility
Scenario runs will stamp their model version and data vintage and return the full calculation chain, so any figure can be reproduced from its inputs. That machinery arrives with the engine in phase 3.
Sensitivity
Every input is already public. This site aggregates published procurement, budget and statistical data. It makes no inference about classified capability, force disposition, or programs that are not publicly acknowledged.